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Other analysts argue that pent-up demand will soak up excess supply.

OFFICE space may be in severe short supply now, but Citigroup predicts the tables will be turned by 2010 with even a glut possible.

‘The market is underestimating the potential supply of new office space in 2010 and beyond, in our view,’ said the banking group in a report on Monday.

While rents and prices of offices are skyrocketing due to the supply crunch, Citigroup said the situation is set to change in a few years, because of the slew of commercial sites sold by the Government in recent months.

It noted that since May, six new sites have been awarded that could yield three million sq ft of offices in 2010 and 2011. This is in addition to projects already under way.

It means that in those years, potential new supply could be 3.2 million to 3.5 million sq ft a year, according to Citigroup’s estimates.

Demand over the last few years has averaged only 1.5 million sq ft per year, the report added.

All eyes are now on the Government Land Sales programme for next year, which is due to be announced next month. If more office sites are released, even more supply can be expected.

Recent bids for office sites have already come in below market expectations, reflecting a more cautious long-term outlook among developers.

A Marina View site earlier this month attracted bids 35 per cent lower than those drawn by an adjacent plot just two months before. The site has yet to be awarded to a bidder even though the tender closed two weeks ago.

The Citigroup report also predicted that landlords of the new offices - most will be in the Central Business District - will face keen competition for tenants. Occupancy rates will peak next year or in 2009 and decline after that, it said.

This has led Citigroup to downgrade the shares of two major office owners: Keppel Land to ’sell’ and City Developments to ‘hold’.

But other analysts are sceptical of Citigroup’s forecasts of an oversupply. They say that for now and next year at least, demand for office space will still far outstrip supply.

When the new offices are opened from 2010 onwards, enough pent-up demand will have been built to soak up all the space, said Mr Wilson Liew, an investment analyst at Kim Eng Research.

‘Judging from the current demand, if this trend continues, there shouldn’t be much of an oversupply,’ he said. ‘These two, three years or so, the supply that is coming on stream is way below the average rate, so there will be a lot of pent-up demand.’

Mr Soong Tuck Yin of Macquarie Securities said the average supply of offices between next year and 2012 comes to only 1.7 million sq ft a year.

This drops to 1.4 million sq ft if space that has already been pre-committed - leased by companies even before being built - is excluded.

Another analyst added that in three to five years’ time, Singapore’s two casinos will have been built. And with the Government promoting Singapore as a financial hub, banks will still expand and be in need of prime space.

There may also be a delay in some of the new office space coming on stream, given the current shortage of contractors, he added.’It’s a bit soon to be making these sorts of predictions,’ the analyst said of the Citigroup report.

In the end, it boils down to whether the economy keeps growing, said Mr Winston Liew, senior investment analyst at OCBC Investment Research. ‘The office market is mainly driven by GDP growth. If our GDP continues to grow, demand should not be an issue.’

Source : Straits Times - 28 Nov 2007

THE record collective sale price achieved by Westwood Apartments yesterday has put to rest industry concerns that the red-hot property market has cooled off.

Malaysian conglomerate YTL Corporation paid $435 million for the 30-year-old condominium in Orchard Boulevard, with an additional $4.6 million development charge.

This prices it at a startling $2,525 per sq ft per plot ratio (psf ppr), a level that trumps the freehold The Ardmore, a 24-unit property off Orchard Road that was sold to SC Global Developments in June for $262 million, or $2,338 psf ppr.

Westwood’s owners will each reap about $8 million, with the two penthouse owners getting about $17 million each.

The sale comes after recent government land sales received lukewarm responses, prompting experts to voice concerns of a souring in sentiment.

A condo plot in Enggor Street in Tanjong Pagar, for example, fetched a top bid of $180.8 million, or $717 psf ppr when it closed recently. This was well below the $852 psf ppr achieved by an adjacent plot.

Analysts told The Straits Times they were caught off guard by YTL’s bullish price but added that the prime Westwood location justified the high price tag.

The 62,179 sq ft condo, which has a plot ratio of 2.8 and a 20-storey restriction, could accommodate 43 luxury apartments of 4,000 sq ft each, said Savills Singapore, which brokered the deal.

Knight Frank director for research and consultancy Nicholas Mak said the sale was refreshing as the volatility in global stock markets, coupled with recent government measures to cool the market, have slowed sales.

Other analysts believe the sale is a one-off with demand for collective sales likely to be confined to prime areas such as District 9, 10 and 11.

Chesterton International Property Consultants’ head of research and consultancy, Mr Colin Tan, said negative sentiment is unlikely to affect prime sites.

‘Even if a developer overpaid, it has secured the site. In the long run, it is likely to be in their advantage,’ he said.

Malaysian tycoon Francis Yeoh, who helms YTL, told The Straits Times yesterday that he was in it for the long- haul. Buying Westwood cements YTL’s entry into Singapore’s top-tier luxury property market.

YTL already owns Sandy Island and the Lakefront Collection at Sentosa Cove.

Dr Yeoh shrugs off the apparent recent real estate cool-down in Singapore, saying wealthy buyers will always demand quality homes, regardless of market sentiment.

‘The question of whether the price paid for the land is reasonable depends on what you do with it,’ he said. ‘There are many people who are still bullish about Singapore’s market.’

Westwood resident Richard Eu, who is also chief executive of the traditional Chinese medicine company Eu Yan Sang, said owners were ‘happy that we managed to get a good price given the recent slowdown’.

The deal took just seven months to complete and is the largest collective sale since new rules kicked in on Oct 4.

Westwood’s owners will each reap about $8 million, with the two penthouse owners getting $17 million each.

Source : Straits Times - 28 Nov 2007

But analysts say price tag is not typical of HDB market, which is more moderate.

AN AGEING five-room HDB flat in Marine Parade has been snapped up for a record price of $750,888 - and all because of its sweeping ocean views.

The buyers, who paid cash, bought the 32-year-old Marine Terrace flat as their retirement home.

They had the field to themselves as the high asking price of $800,000 deterred many prospective buyers.

Agent Francis Ng from HSR Property Group said the couple were the only ones to view the flat.

Mr Ng said the flat has had its walls knocked out to make an expansive living room that takes advantage of the sea view, so there is only one bedroom.

Owner Sally Sim, who lives in a landed property, renovated the flat about two years ago at the cost of just over $80,000.

She kept the property as an extra home that could one day be used as a retirement haven or for her children’s use.

‘But since the market is good, I might as well sell it,’ she said in Mandarin. ‘It’s quite tiring keeping it clean.’

ERA Singapore’s assistant vice-president, Mr Eugene Lim, said: ‘People who buy HDB flats at such record prices are not your typical HDB buyers.

‘They are cash-rich and most of them are looking for unique features, such as a full sea view.’

The Marine Parade flat is about 1,300 sq ft in size, which would put its price at $577 per sq ft (psf).

HDB flats are not usually measured on a psf basis, but pricing it this way does give an idea of how much the property is worth when compared with private housing. Mass market condominiums now cost $650 to $700 psf on average.

Executive flats, which are limited in number, have sold for a bit more but are far bigger in size. Take the seemingly stratospheric price achieved for an executive HDB flat in Mei Ling Street. It went for $755,000 but cost only $474 on a psf basis.

But such deals are certainly are not reflective of the market, which is operating at a more moderate level, said Mr Lim.

HSR executive director Eric Cheng said the market was crazier back in the mid-90s. It is rather calm currently, except for sporadic record deals, he said.

Source : Straits Times - 28 Nov 2007

INFLATION in Singapore is running at an annualised rate of 3.6 per cent. Trade and Industry Minister Lim Hng Kiang has said it could rise to 5 per cent in the first quarter of next year before moderating. The causes of this spike are many. Partly, it is due to a booming domestic economy. A tight labour market has forced up wage costs and lack of office space has forced up rents. Partly it is due to the rise in the goods and services tax (GST). And partly it is due to global forces - a rise in the prices of oil and other commodities. The last, Singapore cannot do much about; the second, the GST rise, is a one-off thing; and the first, a booming economy, one would not want to wish away.

Abstract economic explanations, however, are of little comfort to the ordinary person. Wages, especially at the low end, are probably not rising as fast as the inflation rate, so low-income households will find it difficult to make ends meet. A number of supermarkets - including NTUC FairPrice, Cold Storage and Prime supermarkets - had earlier pledged to absorb the 2 per cent rise in the GST for six months, but that will expire next month. Among the other organisations that had pledged to absorb the GST increase for a period - including a number of other NTUC cooperatives and SingPost - NTUC Childcare was about the only one that said it would do so for up to a year for low-income families. There is room here for the Government to consider rebates and reliefs targeted at low-income families, either in next year’s Budget or earlier, to ease the pain.

Other measures the Government has taken to curb inflation will need some time to show results. For example, it has taken steps to increase the supply of commercial and residential property, but that cannot be accomplished overnight. The chief policy tool the Government has at its disposal is the exchange rate mechanism. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has allowed the Singapore dollar to rise against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, thus making imports cheaper. MAS may have to consider allowing the currency to tighten at a somewhat faster pace, bearing in mind the needs of exporters. Those urging the Government to act more quickly or drastically, however, should bear in mind that it is by no means clear the domestic economy will continue to power ahead next year. The US economy may be slowing and a recession there cannot be ruled out. If that were to occur, the Singapore economy will be affected adversely. The Government will have to be careful not to slam too hard on the brakes to cool a seemingly hot economy just when a cooling may already be on the cards.

Source : Straits Times - 28 Nov 2007

$750,888 for 5-rm Marine Parade flat IN FRESH signs the property market is still pretty hot, an HDB flat has sold for a record $750,888 - and a developer has paid a record price for a collective sale site.

A retired couple yesterday bought the 32-year-old recently renovated flat in Marine Parade. The couple, who declined to be named, have lots of time to enjoy the full 23rd storey sea view.

The wife said: ‘The view is not blocked. There is morning sun and it’s very near the underpass to East Coast Park.’

They have lived abroad, enjoying sea views in previous homes in Germany and Australia.

The last HDB record of $730,000 was set earlier this month - also for a five-room Marine Parade flat with a sea view. Both are on high floors and near East Coast Park with what agents call the ‘X-factor’. An executive HDB flat in Queenstown recently sold for $755,000, but it is newer and nearly 300 sq ft bigger than the record five-room Marine Parade flat. Executive flats are limited.

$435m for Orchard Boulevard condo A 30-YEAR-OLD condominium at Orchard Boulevard has smashed the record for Singapore’s most expensive collective sale.

Westwood Apartments was sold yesterday for $435 million to Malaysian conglomerate YTL Corp. That is an eye-popping $2,525 per sq ft per plot ratio (psf ppr), including a $4.6 million development charge.

This beats record-holder The Ardmore, a 24-unit freehold property off Orchard Road - sold in June for $262 million, or $2,338 psf ppr.

Owners of the 50-unit condo will each get about $8 million. Owners of two penthouses will get about $17 million each, said deal broker Savills Singapore.

The deal caught the industry by surprise, given the lukewarm response to government land sales and a slowdown of collective sales, recently.

Hot 5-rm sales

$750,888

Marine Parade

$730,000

Marine Parade

$720,000

Kim Tian Place

$710,000

Marine Parade

$700,000

Mei Ling Street

Hot en bloc deals

$2,525 psf

Westwood Apartments

$2,338 psf

The Ardmore, Ardmore Park

$1,820 psf

The Grangeford, Leonie Hill

$1,788 psf

Char Yong Gardens, Cairnhill

$1,735 psf

The Parisian, Wheelock Place

Source : Straits Times - 28 Nov 2007