Singapore’s key exports down 5.9% in March
Singapore’s key non-oil domestic exports fell 5.9 percent in March, compared with a year earlier, as shipments to key trading partner the United States slumped further, government data showed on Thursday.
The fall was steeper than the average 0.3 percent drop forecast by economists. They have cautioned that Singapore’s growth could suffer in the face of a possible US recession, a slower world economy, and reduced demand for Asian exports that would likely result.
A growing number of analysts believe the US, the world’s largest economy, has already fallen into a recession.
Said Irvin Seah, economist at DBS Group Research: “The message is clear that global demand is slowing down, led by deterioration in growth outlook from US. We can see that in the pharmaceutical exports. Our pharmaceutical exports to US declined more than electronics exports to US.”
But some economists disagreed, saying that the worse-than-expected numbers was just a blip.
“It was slightly disappointing but nothing to be upset about. Everyone is looking nervously for signs of a slowdown in global demand but in March, we still had strong exports by Taiwan, South Korea and China. That makes it a less reason to be upset about the Singapore numbers. After all, they do fluctuate month to month,” said David Cohen, Director of Action Economics.
Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell by 5.9 per cent last month, reversing a 6.2 per cent gain recorded in February, International Enterprise Singapore (IE Singapore) said. The February figure was revised down from an initial 7.3 percent.
On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted basis, NODX fell for the second straight month and was down 2.6 percent in March, the trade promotion body said.
Last month’s NODX was valued at S$14.3 billion, while total trade grew by 10.8 percent to reach S$78.5 billion, IE Singapore said.
It said both electronics and non-electronics shipments declined last month. Domestic exports of electronic goods, which have been on the decline since February last year, fell an additional 8.5 percent, it said.
Non-electronics shipments dropped by 4.2 percent, reversing a 12.8 percent gain in February, pulled down by lower shipments of pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals and other goods, the agency said.
The European Union, the United States and Malaysia were top contributors to the decline in NODX.
Non-oil exports to the United States fell by 27.5 percent last month, after an 8.0 percent decline a month earlier, IE Singapore said. Shipments to the European Union eased by 23.7 percent after a 4.9 percent gain in February, it said.
With the worse-than-expected exports numbers for March, some economists said first quarter GDP growth may miss earlier estimates.
“We have seen very strong numbers in advance estimates for GDP at 7.2 percent. Manufacturing growth is also strong. But that was based on the first two months. Factoring in March, if exports and industrial production are likely to come in lower than expected, that would mean manufacturing growth from first quarter will be slower than initial estimates of 13%. And that would certainly drag down the overall GDP growth for the first quarter,” said Seah.
Flash estimates for first quarter GDP numbers from the Monetary Authority of Singapore came in at 7.2 percent.
The monthly NODX figures are a closely watched barometer of the health of Singapore’s economy because it is heavily dependent on trade. - AFP/CNA/ir/ls
Source : Channel NewsAsia - 17 Apr 2008
Loading ...
Post a Comment
Tell me a bit about yourself; who you are, where you're from, what information you would like to see on this site. As I continue to provide you with Singapore property happenings, your feedback will encourage me to post more frequently. Thank you.