Fed watchers expect stormy meeting, possible surprise
(WASHINGTON) This time, will the Fed’s words speak louder than its actions? Just ahead of a Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting this week, the widely shared consensus is that the Fed is likely to cut its benchmark short-term interest rate to 2 per cent from 2.25 per cent, signalling that while financial markets have stabilised somewhat, concerns about an American economic downturn remain paramount.
There is always a chance for a surprise, Fed watchers say.
‘I think it’s going to be a contentious meeting,’ said Lyle E Gramley, a senior adviser at the Stanford Washington Research Group and a former Fed board member. ‘There are lots of people on the board who have demonstrated they are pretty hawkish on inflation, and developments in the past month have given them ammunition.’
But lowering the rate for a seventh time since August would be consistent with the comments by Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, that a recession is still possible this year and that, as Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson Jr puts it, the risks are to the downside.
Beyond what the Fed does, economists and other specialists will be looking for what it says.
Of particular interest is whether the Fed hints that this might be the last rate cut for a while, as many experts think, on the ground that further reductions will fan inflation and send the dollar to further lows.
‘I don’t think there’s any question that they’ll cut 25 basis points off the rate,’ said David Rosenberg, chief North American economist of Merrill Lynch. (A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.) ‘The real question is what they say about the future. It won’t be an ‘all clear’ signal. But they’ll find a way to tell the markets that they’ve done enough for now, simply put.’ The reaction in the markets has been positive of late, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 10 per cent since falling to 11,740, a 17-month low, on March 10.
The meeting, today and tomorrow, is of the Federal Open Market Committee, the rate-setting panel that includes the Fed’s board of governors and the presidents of the regional Federal Reserve banks.
A month ago, the committee met on the heels of the Fed’s startling participation in the fire sale of Bear Stearns to JPMorgan Chase, an action Mr Bernanke defended as necessary to avert turmoil in the financial markets and the possible collapse of financial institutions.
The Fed’s involvement came in the form of an emergency US$29 billion loan in return for collateral in the form of mortgage-related securities of uncertain value.
The committee then lowered the federal funds rate - the rate it charges banks for overnight loans - by three-quarters of a percentage point, to the current 2.25 per cent. Trying to still the chaos in the markets, the Fed also left the door open to more rate cuts if necessary.
Two members of the committee dissented, however, saying that a smaller rate cut would have been preferable in the light of the danger of inflation. The disagreement opened an unusual window into the Federal Reserve’s internal debates under the leadership of Mr Bernanke, who has called for greater transparency at an institution known for its secrecy.
If anything, inflation fears have increased in the last few weeks. Soaring prices for food, oil and other commodities appear to be inflicting as much pain on Americans as unemployment and the shrivelling of the mortgage market.
These trends are certain to be a matter of lively discussion this week. — NYT
Source : Business Times - 29 Apr 2008