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Asia shifting power balance, but growth of continent is not a zero-sum game

Powerful as China and India may be today and in the years to come, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong believes that the future of the world belongs to neither of them alone.

Instead, he drove home the point that the world is a big place, and Asia could not be regarded as ‘all of it’, although it is an important part nonetheless.

The best outcome for countries in Asia is to not take sides with either China or India, but rather to also work with the US and Europe as well so that everyone, including smaller countries like Singapore, could prosper in the long run, he said.

Mr Lee was speaking at a question-and-answer session at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue last night, which is the largest defence and security dialogue among Asian nations.

‘The US will play an important role. It is a powerful economy and will continue to be so for decades to come. Europe ought to play an important role, the potential is there, but it depends on how the European enterprise fares in becoming more coherent and in developing a strategic view of its position in the international system,’ he told his audience of nearly 300 delegates from 27 countries.

Earlier in his speech, Mr Lee said that even as the emergence of Asia is shifting the balance of power in the world, the continent’s growth is not a zero-sum game.

Even as the mood among developing countries towards Asia is a defensive one, Asia’s growth over the next 25 years will contribute to ‘a doubling of the world economy’, and open up many opportunities around the world.

‘It’s in the vital interest of the developed world to accommodate a rising Asia, and engage the region constructively. For their part, as Asian countries become more interlinked with the world, they will have bigger stakes in the international system and greater responsibilities in global affairs,’ said Mr Lee.

While calling for the emerging powers in Asia to have ‘greater stakes’ in the existing international order, he said that international cooperation would be key to tackling non-traditional, ‘trans-border’ security threats such as food shortages or natural disasters. Globalisation, however, has its downsides too, especially in developed nations where income inequality is worsening, said the Prime Minister.

‘Even those not personally affected feel uneasy that closer inter-dependence may mean becoming vulnerable to foreign powers that may not be benign, hence the angst and debate about sovereign wealth funds. All this is fuelling deep discontentment with globalisation, and provoking nationalistic and protectionist sentiments around the world,’ he said.

Mr Lee also spoke of how the US would continue to play a crucial role in engaging a rising Asia and integrating it into the global system. This is why the election of the next US President - to be elected this November - has taken on greater prominence, he said. ‘We in Asia are following the campaign closely because the critical issues of war and peace, and of prosperity and scarcity, all hinge on its outcome,’ he said.

While Singapore does not have any votes, Mr Lee shared his ‘wish list’ for the US president, including the hope that he or she would pursue constructive relations with China and other major powers, continue to fight terrorism and take a long-term approach towards Iraq and Afghanistan.

During the question-and-answer segment, a delegate asked Mr Lee about the issues around the world that kept him awake at night.

‘Something could go bump elsewhere in the world, such as in the Middle East. That can certainly affect us . . . Something could go bump within the Asian region, such as in North Korea.’

He also did not rule out problems related to terrorism or globalisation. On the latter, Mr Lee said: ‘If attitudes towards globalisation change, if America becomes inward-looking and protectionist, if Europeans decide they don’t have a stake in rising Asia. Therefore, instead of rising economies integrating peacefully into the Asian system, they force their way in. That’s big trouble.’

The Prime Minister also devoted a significant portion of his address to another global issue - rising food prices and shortages.

‘Over the next year, food prices may moderate with better harvests. In the longer term, the trends towards tighter supplies and higher prices will likely reassert themselves. This has serious security implications,’ he said, warning of how the impact of a chronic food shortage would be most keenly felt by poor countries.

‘The stresses from hunger and famine could result in social upheaval and civil strife, exacerbating conditions that lead to failed states. Between countries, competition for food supplies and displacement of people across borders could deepen tensions, and provoke conflict and wars,’ said Mr Lee.

He called for a multi-lateral cooperative effort where individual countries do their part to boost productivity and infrastructure in their farm sectors.

The three-day dialogue continues until Sunday, with US Secretary of Defence Robert Gates scheduled to make a speech this morning on challenges to stability in the Asia-Pacific region.

Source : Business Times - 31 May 2008