Hot picks in real estate
Thursday, March 22, 2007
TERENCE WONG and ALVIN YONG look at where investors can get the best returns
IT has been quite a year for the Singapore property market, emerging from the gloom and heading into uncharted territory. The spark that started the uptrend can be traced back to late 2004 when foreigners, flush with liquidity, began showing interest in Singapore’s high-end property.
This was boosted by the country’s plans for the Sentosa and Marina Bay integrated resorts as well as government efforts to make property more appealing by easing the approval process for foreigners to own land (in the case of Sentosa). Moreover, Singapore’s property market had been lagging behind Asian cities like Shanghai, Hong Kong and Mumbai.
Capitalising on the government’s effort to revitalise the property market, developers started acquiring prime land in the core central region (downtown core, Sentosa and districts 9, 10 and 11) in anticipation of rising property prices. It led to a series of en bloc deals in 2005 and 2006 as developers outbid each other to secure prime land.
This in turn prompted the government to hike the development charge (DC), with the rates for commercial use and office space rising by an average 12 per cent, landed residential use by 6 per cent and non-landed residential use by 14 per cent.
Reaping rewards
Savvy investors who saw the glimmer of light in late 2005 as a buy signal are reaping the rewards of their investments. In 2006, the Singapore property equities index rose 67 per cent while the URA property price index for residential and commercial property increased by 10.2 per cent and 17 per cent respectively. Singapore Reits (S-Reits) have also done well, appreciating by more than 40 per cent on average in 2006.
Given the buoyant outlook, where should investors look for the best returns in 2007?
Home prices increased by 10 per cent in 2006, with the bulk of the price increase concentrated in the core central region. Prices are expected to rise by a further 12 per cent this year. Residential rents have also risen 14 per cent in 2006.
While the focus has been on the central region, the mass market could see the filter-down effects this year, for several reasons. First, the strong economy has led to greater job security and rising wages. Coupled with a partial restoration of CPF, demand for mass market projects is expected to rise as middle-income earners, who were most affected by structural changes, will have greater confidence to upgrade their properties.
Second, following the wave of en bloc deals, people who have sold their homes to developers would be shopping for replacement units. As some of them may be priced out of units in the original area, they would look for homes in outlying areas.
Third, the government’s strategy of attracting foreign professionals into the country is paying dividends. Anecdotal evidence suggests many have decided to call Singapore home, driving up demand for private property. Many Singaporeans are also snapping up projects close to where the foreigners are working, in hopes of fetching rich rentals. This can be seen in the recent launch of One North Residences at One North Research Hub in Buona Vista, which sold close to 80 per cent of the units in three days.
On the commercial side, the sharp 30 per cent spike in office rentals in 2006 was attributed to the shortage of prime office space. Although the government has released the Business and Financial Centre for development, no new office supply is expected to hit the market till late 2009. This has caused office rentals in the CBD to surge past $10 per sq ft with occupancy hitting 98.4 per cent for Grade A properties.
With more multinationals from the finance, IT and marine industries relocating to Singapore, demand has risen considerably, while downtown supply has dipped as old commercial buildings are being redeveloped into apartments. As such, the commercial sector will continue to do well for the next couple of years, and new records are expected to be set for Grade A properties. Sub-prime areas will also benefit from spillover demand.
Pockets of opportunities
As property recovers, property stocks have seen one of the best runs in recorded history, far outpacing the rise in real estate. While fundamentals are strong and profits should be very healthy, much of the prospects of property developers may already be in the stock price. However, there are pockets of opportunities, particularly in stocks exposed to the commercial sector as well as Reits.
With the crunch in office supply, commercial real estate landlords will see another stellar year. Given the discrepancy between rental yields of commercial property and the required returns of commercial Reits, value can be unlocked by landlords by selling these properties to existing players or floating a Reit themselves.
S-Reits outperformed their global peers in 2006 and are likely to see slower growth ahead. Given that it is increasingly difficult for Reit managers to make yield accretive acquisitions, it is likely that there will be some merger and acquisition (M&A) activity among listed players. Smaller Reits like Cambridge Industrial Trust, which typically have more attractive valuations and higher yields, are likely targets for takeover.
Property is riding high and will continue to see strong interest in 2007. For investors, this should be a good time to invest in well-located mass market projects, particularly those close to the city or MRT stations. Commercial landlords are also expected to enjoy a good run for at least the next two years. Grade A office buildings have already seen record rentals, and this is expected to spill over to the lower tiers. While prospects for property remain bright, property counters may have already priced in much of the good news. As such, investors should not expect the same gains as before and be more selective.
Terence Wong is chief executive officer, and Alvin Yong, research associate, at SIAS Research Pte Ltd
Source : Business Times - 22 Mar 2007

